| 摘要: | 近年來隨著生成式AI、繪圖GPU、網通5G、高效能運算HPC、自動駕駛車等高階IC晶片的發展與需求快速成長，高階晶片所需的先進封裝與味之素積層膜 (Ajinomoto Build-up Film, ABF) 載板相形重要。隨著高階IC晶片的功能持續提升，ABF載板的特性與優勢就展現出來，使其在高階IC晶片產品領域占據優勢地位。在高效能運算與生成式AI的新應用的龐大市場需求潛力下，為ABF載板市場帶來全新的高速成長機會，在整體高階先進半導體晶片產業鏈中，ABF載板將扮演其中非常關鍵的角色與地位。
本論文以產業經濟學理論之「結構—行為—績效 (Structure-Conduct-Performance, S-C-P)」分析架構，來探討全球ABF載板產業的基本條件、政府政策、市場結構、廠商行為與產業績效，及分析ABF載板產業發展現況與未來趨勢。
本論文的研究結果顯示，在ABF載板產業的市場結構中，廠商主要集中於臺灣、日本與韓國，賣方市場集中度很高，為優勢廠商高度寡占的市場結構。廠商進入障礙方面，載板產業屬於高資本高技術密集的產業，具有規模經濟的進入障礙，為新進廠商高度進入障礙的產業。產品差異性方面，ABF載板產品有相當明顯的垂直差異性，使得市場結構變得較為集中，載板廠商之間有相當明顯的產品差異性。
在廠商行為方面，載板廠商的訂價策略主要依據其在終端客戶整體評核的位階，與整體市場的景氣程度，在供不應求的市場狀況下，廠商訂價策略有很高的操作的空間與彈性。在產品競爭策略上，載板廠商要在全球載板競爭市場中脫穎而出，就必須在品質、成本、交期、技術和服務這五項QCDTS核心競爭指標上持續優化和創新，進而滿足終端客戶的高標準要求，使其在高階產品領域占據優勢地位。在研發創新方面，針對高階ABF載板的應用朝向高效能運算的方向發展，創新的先進封裝技術Chiplet異質整合封裝技術與台積電的CoWoS立體IC堆疊封裝方式是未來趨勢，將帶動ABF載板朝向大面積、高層數、高線路密度的方向研發創新，拉高ABF載板整體技術難度與門檻。集團化與聯盟方面，進行上下游垂直整合與多角化投資，並與優勢客戶進行聯盟，以求更高的經營績效與搶占利基市場。
從經營績效來看，於2015~2018年期間，ABF載板產業處於供過於求市場低迷的時期，需求低的市況導致產能利用率低獲利亦不易，EPS與主要經營績效指標皆不佳。2019年之後ABF載板產業因高效能運算產品的應用大增，新冠肺炎疫情所帶來的需求翻轉爆炸性的成長，在ABF載板供不應求的市況下，需求量與價格都大漲的榮景，載板廠商的EPS與各項經營績效指標皆有非常明顯的成長與亮眼的表現。ABF載板的整體經營績效除了與經營管理者的經營策略與決策有關之外，亦與產業的景氣榮枯，及產品的應用面隨著時代轉變，科技發展日新月異而產生的產品板塊的移轉有很大的關聯性。新科技發展所推動的產品應用，將對ABF載板產業帶來顛覆性的重大影響。;In recent years, with the rapid development and demand growth of high-end IC chips such as generative AI, graphics GPUs, 5G networking, high-performance computing (HPC), and autonomous driving vehicles, the importance of advanced packaging and ABF (Ajinomoto Build-up Film) substrates has become increasingly pronounced. As the functionalities of high-end IC chips continue to advance, the unique properties and advantages of ABF substrates have become evident, securing a dominant position in the field of high-end IC chip products. Given the significant market demand potential for new applications in high-speed computing and generative AI, the ABF substrate market is presented with unprecedented opportunities for rapid growth, playing a crucial role within the overall advanced semiconductor chip industry chain.
This thesis employs the Structure-Conduct-Performance (S-C-P) analytical framework of industrial economics theory to examine the fundamental conditions, government policies, market structure, firm behavior, and industry performance of the global ABF substrate industry, analyzing its current state and future trends.
The research findings reveal that the market structure of the ABF substrate industry is characterized by a high degree of seller concentration, primarily centered in Taiwan, Japan, and South Korea, indicating a highly oligopolistic market dominated by a few leading manufacturers. Regarding barriers to entry, the industry is recognized for its capital and technology-intensive nature, embodying significant economies of scale barriers, posing substantial challenges for new entrants. In terms of product differentiation, ABF substrates exhibit considerable vertical differentiation, leading to a more concentrated market structure with notable product differences among manufacturers.
In terms of firm behavior, the pricing strategies of substrate manufacturers are largely based on their overall evaluation by end clients and the general state of the market economy. In a supply-constrained market scenario, manufacturers have considerable flexibility and leeway in their pricing strategies. Regarding competitive strategies, to stand out in the global substrate competition, manufacturers must continuously optimize and innovate across five core competitive indicators： quality, cost, delivery, technology, and service (QCDTS), thereby meeting the high standards of end clients and securing a dominant position in the realm of high-end products. In innovation and R&D, focusing on high-end ABF substrates for high-speed computing applications, innovative advanced packaging technologies such as Chiplet heterogeneous integration and TSMC′s CoWoS 3D IC stacking are the trends of the future, driving ABF substrates towards larger areas, higher layer counts, and higher circuit densities, increasing the overall manufacturing difficulty and threshold. Regarding conglomeratization and alliances, vertical integration and diversification investments are pursued, along with alliances with key customers, to achieve higher operational efficiencies and capture niche markets.
From a performance perspective, during the 2015-2018 period, the ABF substrate industry faced a downturn due to oversupply and low demand, leading to underutilized capacity and challenging profitability, reflected in poor EPS and key performance indicators. Post-2019, the industry experienced explosive growth due to the increased application of high-speed computing products and the demand surge brought by the COVID-19 pandemic, resulting in a booming market with rising demand and prices, significantly improving manufacturers′ EPS and performance metrics. The overall operational performance of the ABF substrate industry is not only related to the managerial strategies and decisions but also closely linked to the cyclical fortunes of the industry and the shifting application domains brought about by rapid technological advancements. The application of new technologies will have a disruptive and transformative impact on the industry. |
