研發密度對分析師盈餘預測準確度之影響 - 以研發活動敍述性揭露為調節變數;The Effect of R&D Intensity on the Accuracy of Analysts’ Earnings Forecasts: The Moderating Role of Narrative Disclosure of R&D Activities

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Title:	研發密度對分析師盈餘預測準確度之影響 - 以研發活動敍述性揭露為調節變數;The Effect of R&D Intensity on the Accuracy of Analysts’ Earnings Forecasts: The Moderating Role of Narrative Disclosure of R&D Activities
Authors:	黃炳豪;HUANG, PING HAO
Contributors:	會計研究所
Keywords:	研發費用;研發活動敘述性揭露;分析師盈餘預測;文本分析;半導體;R&D Expenditures;R&D Narrative Disclosure;Analysts′ Earnings Forecasts;Textual Analysis;Semiconductor
Date:	2024-07-16
Issue Date:	2024-10-09 17:09:08 (UTC+8)
Publisher:	國立中央大學
Abstract:	本研究欲探討研發費用對分析師盈餘預測準確度之影響以及研發活動敍述性揭露是否能消弭當研發密度較高時，存有較高資訊不對稱之問題，使分析師盈餘預測準確度提升，起到一調節效果。本研究以2010年至2021年臺灣半導體上市上櫃公司作為研究樣本，並以研發密度作為研發費用之代理變數。經本研究實證結果發現，研發密度與分析師盈餘預測準度呈顯著負相關，亦即，當公司之研發密度愈高，產生更多研發活動資訊，可能伴隨著更高的不確定性及資訊不對稱之問題，分析師盈餘準確度因此下降。更進一步之實證結果顯示:隨研發密度之提升，分析師盈餘預測準確度將下降之情況，當研發活動敘述揭露之可讀性愈高時，有助於削弱公司與分析師之資訊不對稱程度，進而使研發密度對分析師盈餘預測準確度之負向影響趨弱。;This study investigates the impact of R&D expenditures on the accuracy of analysts′ earnings forecasts and examines the moderating role of the readability of R&D narrative disclosures in alleviating the higher information asymmetry associated with greater R&D intensity, thereby enhancing forecast accuracy. Using a sample of listed semiconductor companies in Taiwan from 2010 to 2021, R&D intensity employs R&D expenditures as a proxy for R&D expenditures. Our empirical results reveal a significant negative correlation between R&D intensity and the accuracy of analysts′ earnings forecasts. This finding indicates that higher R&D intensity, which generates more R&D-related information, is likely accompanied by greater uncertainty and information asymmetry, leading to decreased forecast accuracy. Further empirical results show that as R&D intensity increases, the readability of R&D narrative disclosures positively moderates this adverse impact on the accuracy of analysts′ earnings forecasts. Specifically, higher readability of R&D narrative disclosures helps reduce the information asymmetry between the company and analysts, thereby weakening the negative effect of R&D intensity on forecast accuracy.
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