本論文研究台灣和鄰近區域的最強地震圓弧雙交叉，地震事件深度皆在 70 公里之 內。我們分析最強地震圓弧雙交叉的各種幾何特性，包括:半徑比，端弧比，兩端分岔對 稱比，南、北端分岔比，弧周比和主軸角度。我們發現這些幾何特性有助於我們找出能 預測短天期強震的最強地震圓弧雙交叉，並使得120天內規模5.7以上強震的預測命中 率接近8成左右，90天內預測命中率接近7成，70天內預測命中率接近6成。;This thesis studies the strongest double intersections of circular arcs of earthquakes in Taiwan and adjacent areas.The depths of the seismic events considered by us are within 70 kilometers.We analyze various geometric features of the strongest double intersections, including: ratio of radii, ratio of end arcs, branching ratio of the ends, northern/southern branching ratio, ratio of arc and circumference and the angle of the major axis.We find that these geometric features can be useful for us to identify those strongest double intersections that can be applied to predicted short term strong earthquakes.And the hit rate of the prediction of the strong earthquakes with magnitudes over 5.7 occurred within 120 days can be close to 80%, the hit rate of the prediction within 90 days is close to 70%, and the hit rate of the prediction within 70 days is close to 60%.
