本研究探討當企業降低其現金股利支付時，其 ESG 表現是否會具有隱含的訊號效果，使得現金股利支付降低不再是一個壓倒性的負面訊號，再透過分析師角色來驗證此訊號效果是否成立，本研究之樣本針對台灣 2016 至 2023 年間之上市上櫃公司之財報資訊與各券商所釋出之分析師預測，以及 TEJ 之「 TESG 永續發展指標主表」中之 TESG 分數。分析結果顯示，現金股利支付的減少的確會導致分析師預測調降，而加上 ESG 分數後並不會顯著改變分析師之預測結果，而本研究為了驗證分析師之預測是否能實際的被大眾所接受，因此以發布日作為事件日，抓取短期累計異常報酬為應變數，發現分析師發布資料後之股價變化有顯著改變，最後再驗證分析師是否具有價值攸關的特性，以長期累計異常報酬來驗證結果，發現長期而言分析師之預測報告對股價沒有顯著影響，顯示其長期價值相關性有限。;This study investigates whether a company′s ESG performance has an implicit signaling effect when it reduces its cash dividend policy, making the reduction of cash dividends not an overwhelmingly negative signal. This signaling effect is verified through the role of analysts. The sample for this study includes financial information from listed companies in Taiwan between 2016 and 2023, analyst forecasts released by various brokerage firms, and TESG scores from the "TESG Sustainable Development Indicator Main Table" in the TEJ database. The findings show that a reduction in cash dividend policy indeed leads to a downward adjustment in analyst forecasts. However, adding ESG scores does not significantly change the analysts′ forecast results. To verify whether the analysts′ forecasts are actually accepted by the public, the study uses the release date as the event date and takes the short-term cumulative abnormal return as the dependent variable. The results indicate that there is a significant change in stock prices following the release of analysts′ reports. Finally, to verify whether analysts have value relevance characteristics, the study examines the long-term cumulative abnormal return. It finds that, in the long run, analysts′ forecast reports do not have a significant impact on stock prices.
