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    請使用永久網址來引用或連結此文件: https://ir.lib.ncu.edu.tw/handle/987654321/97640


    題名: 年報質性接露品質對分析師預測一致性之影響;The Impact of Qualitative Disclosure Quality in Annual Reports on Analyst Forecast Consistency
    作者: 張証皓;Chang, Cheng-Hao
    貢獻者: 企業管理學系
    關鍵詞: 財務分析師;預測一致性;資訊環境;資訊不對稱;Financial Analyst;Forecast Consistency;Information Environment;Information Environment, Information Asymmetry
    日期: 2025-08-12
    上傳時間: 2025-10-17 11:43:01 (UTC+8)
    出版者: 國立中央大學
    摘要: 在現代資本市場中,財務資訊揭露的質性品質對資訊使用者,如投資人與財務分析師的決策具有重要影響。財務報告的品質特性在國際會計準則 (IFRS) 概念架構中包括許多面向,例如相關性、忠實表述,以及增強性特性,其中質性分析指標與分析師資訊環境息息相關。而當中分析師預測的一致性是指不同分析師對同一公司盈餘等指標預測的接近程度。
    本研究蒐集台灣上市、上櫃公司發布 2014 年到 2023 年企業股東會年報進行分析,藉由回歸分析法來衡量年報可讀性、可比性、可驗證性及確定性語調和分析師資訊環境之間的關係,可讀性高的年報有助於減少資訊誤解;財務報表具可比性使分析師可更精準地參照同業;可驗證性強的資訊可提供一致的預測基礎;適度正向且誠實的語調則可減少解讀分歧。並進一步加入資訊環境與財務報表品質的好壞作為調節變數,探討它們與分析師之間預測誤差的關聯,提高財務報表揭露品質可以改善分析師資訊環境,促使分析師盈餘預測更準確且更具共識,從而了解資訊品質對於財務分析師的重要性,深化對財務揭露質性品質的研究能為監管機關和企業提供實證建議,提升財務報表揭露品質將有助於凝聚市場共識、降低資訊不對稱,進一步促進資本市場的穩健發展。
    ;In modern capital markets, the qualitative characteristics of financial information disclosure play a critical role in influencing decision-making by information users, such as investors and financial analysts. According to the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) Conceptual Framework, the quality of financial reporting comprises fundamental characteristics (relevance and faithful representation) and enhancing characteristics, which are closely tied to the information environment in which analysts operate. Among these, analyst forecast consistency refers to the degree of agreement among analysts in predicting financial metrics such as earnings for a given firm.
    This study analyzes annual general meeting (AGM) reports issued between 2014 and 2023 by publicly listed firms in Taiwan. Using regression analysis, we examine the relationship between four key textual disclosure attributes readability, comparability, verifiability, and tone polarity and the quality of the analyst information environment. Our findings suggest that highly readable reports reduce the risk of information misinterpretation; comparable financial reports allow analysts to benchmark more accurately against peer firms; verifiable disclosures provide a consistent foundation for forming forecasts; and a moderately positive, truthful tone helps reduce interpretive divergence.
    Furthermore, the study incorporates both the information environment and disclosure quality as mediating variables to explore their associations with analyst forecast errors. The results underscore the importance of disclosure quality in enhancing the precision and consensus of analyst forecasts. A deeper understanding of these qualitative attributes provides practical implications for both regulators and firms: improving the quality of financial disclosures can reduce information asymmetry, foster market consensus, and ultimately strengthen the functioning of capital markets.
    顯示於類別:[企業管理研究所] 博碩士論文

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