台灣的製造業持續的在世界發光，靠的就是有效的管理和良好的成本控制。生產的型態也從大量生產的方式（MTS：Made to Stock）轉變為少量多樣的小批量生產。在工業管理的領域中我們稱此種生產系統為「少量多樣」的生產模式，「少量多樣」的生產模式多適用於訂單設計生產〔engineer to order〕 的產品需求。 本研究以台灣公司的產線外移，留在台灣的公司因應企業的轉型，從生產工廠變成研發型公司的過程需作的生產上的改變，專注於變動機率下的試產批量研究。由於在試產時的機率往往是不可獲知的，如何在這樣的情形下去投入試產的批量，以達成驗證的目的並減少成本的損耗。為了探究這個過程，利用現有的模擬軟體－ARENA作為研究的輔助工具來建構模型做系統模擬，模擬在不同的變動機率區間，批量的生產情形，進而求得最佳批量。 藉由這樣的一個研究期望開創在某一固定機率下的最佳化批量研究之外的另外一條路徑。畢竟機率本來就非固定，而生產只能盡量維持在一個較高水準的區間，當非固定時批量會如何的運作，是讓人感興趣的課題。 Taiwan’s manufacturing industry has got success in the world by effective management and good cost control. The production type is from the way to produce in a large amount (MTS: Made to Stock) change into the various producing in batches small of small quantity. In the field of industrial management, the production system we call this a "small amount of diversity" mode of production. "A small amount of diversity" is mode of production design and production of multiple orders for engineer to match product demand. In this study, we want to know the relocation of Taiwan's production line and leaving the company in Taiwan in response to the transformation of enterprises from the production plant into a research and development company. This process for the company is needed change and focused on changes in the probability of under trial run batch of production. As is often produced when the probability is not learned, how to go on in such cases put into lot size for trial run to achieve the purpose of verification process and reduce the cost of loss. To explore this process, using existing simulation software-ARENA as a research assistant tool to construct models for system simulation, simulation of changes in the probability of a different range, lot size, and further obtain the optimal lot size. Expectations by such a study can have another way to have different thinking besides the probability at a fixed volume of the best outside of the other path. After all, the probability is non-stationary, while the production can only try to maintain at a high level of the interval. When it is non-fixed, how will the operation of the lot size working that is an interesting subject.
