本篇論文主要探討1990年以後現金股利與股票購回之替代效果，以及2003年減稅法案通過後對這兩者關係之影響。與Grullon and Michaely(2002)研究期間1973年至1990年之結論不同，我們的研究結果顯示1992年至2010年這段期間內，現金股利與股票購回兩者的替代關係並不強烈；若以減稅法案做為區隔，1992年至2002年現金股利與股票購回在這11年間仍存在替代效果，但減稅法案實施後的2003年至2010年，這層關係便消失了。此外我們也發現2003年之減稅法案大幅調降股利稅後的確使得整體市場的股利支付率增加，但該法案也僅只能解釋部分股利回升的現象，因為早在2000年左右，股利支付率就已出現反轉回升的趨勢。In this paper, we investigate the substitution hypothesis between cash dividends and stock repurchase after 1990, and also discuss the change of their relation by the 2003 dividend tax cut. Different from Grullon and Michaely(2002), our study reports that the substitution effect between cash dividends and stock repurchase is no longer exist. If we separate the time period according to the dividend tax cut, we find that substitution effect works during 1992 to 2002 but disappears after 2003. Furthermore, we also find that dividend payout ratio of “total market” specifically increases after the 2003 dividend tax cut. However, the change of tax rate can only explain part of the dividends rebound phenomenon because dividends had returned as early as 2000.
