| 摘要: | 汽油屬於民生必需品之一，因國內油價受國際原油價格衝擊甚大，加上國人節能減碳意識高漲，因此提升汽車燃油效率已成各國重要課題之一。Espey and Nair(2005)提到，過去文獻多是探討車輛性能調整價格的估計、車輛安全性的估算以及產品差異性對市場力量的改變，對燃油效率之願付價格討論較少，故本文主旨在探討提升汽車燃油效率之願付價格，以及燃油成本因提升燃油效率而下降是否會導致燃油消費的增加，即為反彈效果。最後估計若對汽車碳排放量課徵費用對年里程數的影響。本文藉由問卷收集消費者的環境態度、車輛與能源使用行為、特徵變數等，並利用區間迴歸模型(interval regression model)、Tobit模型和雙檻式模型(double-hurdle model)作為估計模型。 研究結果得到三個結論：第一是提升燃油效率的願付價格為177,467元，提升燃油效率可節省的燃油成本為33,326元，中間差額144,141元為民眾反映環境因素而願意支付的價格，環境態度、汽車使用行為和個人特徵變數對於願付價格都有顯著影響；第二是考慮到變數受限和二階段選擇的問題，利用double-hurdle 模型估計出反彈效果為17%；第三是若對汽車課徵碳排放費用(每公斤CO2費用為10元)，利用Tobit模型和double-hurdle模型估計汽車年里程數分別會降低74公里和545公里。Abstract Gasoline is one of the necessities. Due to the gas price in Taiwan has been impacted greatly under the international natural oil price, and the awareness of carbon reduction by citizens is getting higher. Therefore, to improve the fuel efficiency of vehicles has become one of the important topics for all countries. According to Espey and Nair(2005), most of the literature estimated the quality-adjusted prices, valuation of safety features and measurement of market power exerted by producers in different locations. The discussion of the willingness to pay of fuel efficiency is less. The purpose of this study is to explore to the WTP of improving fuel efficiency, as well as the rebound effect, fuel cost decline by upgrading fuel efficiency will lead to increase in fuel consumption. At last, I estimate the impact on the annual mileage by levying on vehicle carbon emissions. Use interval regression model, Tobit model and double-hurdle model as the estimation model, in which tha data of the consumers’ environmental attitudes, the behaviors of vehicle and energy, characteristic variables, etc. are collected from questionnaires. This study findings include: first, the WTP of improving fuel efficiency is NT$177,467. The savings in fuel costs by upgrading fuel efficiency is NT$33,326. The difference, NT$144,141, relects the WTP of environmental factors. The environmental attitudes, the behaviors of vehicles, characteristic variables for WTP have significant impact. Second,taking into account the problems of censored and two-stage selection, the rebound effect in Taiwan is 17% by using double-hurdle model. Finally, levying on the carbon emissions, NT$10 per kg CO2, will leads to reduce the annual mileage in 74 kms and 545 kms by using Tobit model and double-hurdle model. |
