| 摘要: | 在國際貿易理論的討論中，有一假設理論:兩地之間，如果減少彼此的貿易障礙，使生產要素(資本及勞力)、產品及資金的自由流通，兩地的福址就會增加，產生雙利。所以兩百多年來多數的經濟學者不斷的鼓吹自由貿易。但全球化是一支兩面利刃的刀，帶來好處也帶來壞處。好處:(一)、增加生產要素的流動及投報率。(二)、增加部份產業、地區及特定人的所得及財富。(三)、擴大投資、貿易及創新等的誘因。(四)、增加政府及私部門對資源做有效的使用及重視永續發展。(五)、可加速國家發展及落後國家的現代化。壞處:(一)、它使部份產業、地區、國家產生嚴重的失業問題及就業扭曲。(二)、輸出污染產業到開發中國家或低度開發中國家。(三)、歐美跨國企業以壟斷的方式，向第三世界或其他國家廉價採購礦業等天然資源。(四)、金融市場的熱錢自由流竄導致不合理利潤及經濟掠奪。(五)、擴大貧富差距、知識差距導致社會結構不穩定。
而台灣社會生為國際社會的一份子自然也免不了要面臨這樣好處及壞處的判斷及選擇。本文將使用台灣每年總體經濟數字(資料來源:行政院主計總處及中央銀行)，以一階自我迴歸模型(AR1)，來探討國際貿易、國際直接投資(FDI)、國外勞動生產要素移動，對台灣實質薪資所得，失業率及家戶所得分配的影響。以做為台灣在全球化過程中另一個可思考的方向。
台灣總體經濟在全球化的推波下，我們以實證的方式得到下面結果，全球化使台灣家戶所得的貧富差距擴大，並提高整體的失業率，特別是工業部門的失業率並沒有受到顯著性的影響但服務業的失業率確有受到顯著性的提升影響。另外全球化對台灣實質薪資所得在整體上並沒有顯著性的提昇及影響，工業部門及服務業的實質薪資所得也是沒有顯著性的提昇及影響。
There is a hypothesis in the discussion of International trade theory. if want to reduce the barrier of trade between A country and B country, the production factors including capital and labor, product and fund can be circulated freely. The win-win benefits of 2 countries can be increased. Therefore, most of Economists continue pushing Free trade in the past 200 hundreds. Besides, the globalization was speeded up after cold war between US and Russia plus the information sharing development. However, Globalization had advantages and disadvantages at the same time. There are 5 advantages including 1) Increase the flow of production factor and the rate of return on investment 2) Increase the income and assets of partial industries, zones and people 3) expand the incentive of investment, commerce and innovation 4) enhance the effective usage on resource executed by government and private departments. 5) Speed up the country’s development and modernization of lagging countries. As for disadvantage, there are 5 points including 1) serious unemployed and employed questions in the partial industries, zones and countries, 2) export the pollution industries to the developing countries or low developing counties, 3) Western countries utilize the monopoly way to buy the cheap natural resource such as the mining industry from 3rd world or other countries. 4)the hot money in the finance market free flow to lead to unreasonable benefits and economical loot. 5) the unstable structure caused by expanding the poverty gap and knowledge gap. Taiwan is one of country in the world, which can’t be avoided to face the judgment and choice about advantages and disadvantages. This thesis will use the yearly Macroeconomic number in Taiwan, which is from Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics, Executive Yuan, R.O.C and Central Bank R.O.C, and AR1to probe into the influence of substantial wage and income in Taiwan, unemployment rate and household income allocation caused by the international commerce, FDI, the movement of production factor for foreign labors. This is the other thinking when Taiwan is in the progress of Globalization.We got the results proved by us when Taiwanese Macroeconomics is pushed by Globalization. Globalization expands the poverty gap of household income, and increase the unemployment rate, service industry especially. Besides, the substantial income in Taiwan doesn’t be significantly enhanced by Globalization. As for the substantial income of industrial department and service industry don’t show the significant increase and effect. |
