從中美貿易戰看人民幣對亞洲國家匯率影響之研究

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Title:	從中美貿易戰看人民幣對亞洲國家匯率影響之研究
Authors:	沈金玉;Shen, Chin-Yu
Contributors:	財務金融學系在職專班
Keywords:	中美貿易摩擦;外匯市場;人民幣匯率;Frankel-Wei迴歸模型;Sino-US trade friction;Foreign exchange market;RMB exchange rate;Frankel-Wei regression model
Date:	2020-07-15
Issue Date:	2020-09-02 16:44:26 (UTC+8)
Publisher:	國立中央大學
Abstract:	本論文探討在中美貿易摩擦的背景下，人民幣是否為亞洲地區經濟體的外匯穩定匯率,或為決定亞洲國家匯率的隱性貨幣籃子中最重要的一種貨幣。本文參考Kawai and Pontines (2016) 對於Frankel–Wei迴歸的修正模型，考慮人民幣和美元匯率之間的共線性，進行分析。研究結果顯示，美元仍然是整個亞洲貨幣市場最主要的匯率參考依據。而根據本研究的實證結果大都顯示，人民幣的通貨籃內基本上只有美元，除了美元之外，沒有任何貨幣在人民幣匯率機制中能持續且具有影響力。;This thesis uses the Frankel-Wei regression model to investigate whether the RMB has become an important currency in the determination of exchange rates of the Asian economies or the most important hidden currency basket. We further study the role of RMB in the context of Sino-US trade friction. We use Kawai and Pontines (2016)’s revised model for Frankel–Wei regression and consider the collinearity between the RMB and US dollar exchange rates. The results show that the US dollar is still the most important exchange rate reference currency for the Asian currencies’ exchange rates studied in this research. We also find that the RMB currency basket contains basically only US dollars. Apart from the US dollar, no currency can be sustained and influential in the RMB exchange rate determination mechanism.
Appears in Collections:	[Executive Master of Finance Management] Electronic Thesis & Dissertation

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