| 摘要: | 中文摘要
國與國間的政治氛圍時常影響到兩國的經濟活動，若兩國間無存在政治上的共和或衝突，經濟貿易活動會漸趨向公平的自由競爭。若欲創造兩國貿易不公平競爭的方式包含進口關稅，也包含了政治意圖的經濟政策。尤其實施在經濟貿易依存性高，貿易順逆差大的兩國間，對國家經濟的影響必然讓兩國人民生活。將高漲的政治衝突轉換成貿易不公平行為，會讓政治不只是表面的話語之爭，而是實質國家競爭力的消長，所以在經濟全球化的現今常被當成國家間談判籌碼，制衡手法使用不足為奇。
本研究之主要研究探討中國對南韓限韓令期間（約2016年中開始至西元2018 年底），對於韓國與中國間經濟貿易的影響，將限韓令前有著重要比重的貿易產品－化妝品貿易，以及汽車貿易，還有中國至南韓旅遊人數的影響，使用差異分析模型分析，納入韓國，中國，台灣，日本，香港，美國的數據來觀察最終反映在貿易結果上的差異。
實證結果得知在限韓令前後，民生用品日用化妝品的貿易上，沒有呈現顯著影響，但在汽車出口與中國至南韓旅遊人數上，則有著顯著的數字反映，推論越是能夠直接由國家政策規定，社會輿論影響範圍內的產品，經濟活動反應越大。另外限韓令導致的經濟變化在短期內對許多行業影響顯著，長期則只有在政策影響力強的產業持續發酵。
關鍵詞：限韓令、化妝品、汽車、旅遊人次、差異分析模型
;ABSTRACT
The political situation between countries usually affects economic activities. If there is no political in good or bad relationship between them, economic activities will tend to fair competition. Sometimes, a country wants to create unfair competition in trading, it might issue heavy import tax rate, as well as political economic policies. Therefore, if unfair polities implemented between two countries which their economy are highly dependent, the influence would be huge. The impact on the national economy situation cannot be ignored by people from two counties. Transforming highly political conflicts into economic sanctions, that politics is not just talking, but a really national competition, this is often used as a bargaining trick for negotiation.
This research is to study the impact from China’s anti-Korean order (from mid-2016 to the end of 2018), after south Korea install the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD), formerly Theater High Altitude Area Defense, is an American anti-ballistic missile defense system. Find out affects that cosmetics trading between South Korea and China, the car trading, and the statistics of tourism. Analyzed by Difference-in-Differences (DiD) estimation, data set including South Korea, China, Taiwan, Japan, Hong Kong, and United States of America, observe trading changes before and after date.
By estimation, it turns out that there have no significant impacts on cosmetics and daily cosmetics products (HS code 3304). However, there are significant in the export of cars (HS code 8703) and statistics of tourism from China to South Korea. Infer that order did influenced consuming behavior from China people.
Keywords: Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD), cosmetics, cars, statistics of tourism, Difference-in-Differences (DiD) estimation |
