| 摘要: | 本研究資料來源為學術調查研究資料庫，行政院主計總局 1976至 2021 年，共 46 年的家庭收支調查原始資料，使用並處理歷年資料分析家庭結構、工作狀況、地區特性及實質可支配所得等資訊，對家庭汽機車擁有數的影響，並使用多元線性迴歸模型來探討家庭收支調查裡不同變數對家庭汽車和機車擁有數的影響。
在家庭結構方面，本研究發現家戶中未成年人口數達兩位(含)以上與家中無未成年人口相比，在臺灣早期會顯著提高對汽車的需求，然而隨著時間推移，無未成年人口的家庭比例逐漸增加，有多位未成年人口的家庭逐年減少，近年對於汽車需求也不再顯著，甚至產生了負影響，機車的部份，一位及兩位(含)以上未成年人口家庭均產生了顯著負面影響；多位工作年齡人口與一位或者無工作年齡人口的家庭相比，對汽機車的需求近年來也有顯著影響，家庭中工作年齡人口數量增加，特別是三位以上時，對汽機車的需求皆呈現顯著增加；老年人口則對汽機車的需求相對較低，且隨著家庭老年人口的增加，對汽車的需求產生顯著負影響，但近年當家中僅一位老年人口時與無老年人口的家庭相比，對機車需求仍有所提升。
在家庭工作狀況方面，工作人口率對家庭汽車擁有數，直到近年才有顯著正影響，對機車擁有數的影響也是產生顯著正影響，近年家戶人口數增加則對汽車產生顯著正影響，對機車雖然也產生顯著正影響，但其參數值則是逐年下滑。
家庭可支配所得對汽機車擁有數也有顯著影響，研究發現，家庭實質可支配所得越高，汽車和機車的擁有數量均顯著增加，這反映出經濟狀況對家庭交通工具擁有數的重要性。
在地區特徵方面，不同地區的家庭汽機車擁有數有顯著差異。北北基宜地區的汽車需求在 1999 年後逐漸下降，而桃竹苗地區在同一時期的汽車需求則超越了北北基宜地區；機車需求在北北基宜地區逐年上升，而其他地區則逐年下降，這表明地區經濟發展水平和交通基礎設施對家庭汽機車擁有數的影響顯著。
上述研究結果對理解台灣社會變遷下的交通需求變化具有重要意義，為相關研究提供了有價值的參考。
;The data for this study comes from the Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics (DGBAS), focusing on household income and expenditure surveys from 1976 to 2021. The analysis examines the impact of household structure, employment status, regional characteristics, and real disposable income on the number of vehicles owned by households. A multiple linear regression model is used to explore how different variables in the household income and expenditure survey affect the ownership of cars and motorcycles.
In terms of household structure, the study finds that households with two or more minors significantly increase the demand for cars compared to those without minors in early Taiwan. However, over time, the proportion of households without minors has gradually increased, while those with multiple minors have decreased. In recent years, the demand for cars has become less significant and even negatively impacted. Regarding motorcycles, two patterns have emerged due to changes in household structure: households with one minor have shown a significant positive impact, while those with two or more minors have exhibited a significant negative impact. The number of working-age individuals in a household also significantly affects the demand for vehicles. Specifically, an increase in working-age individuals, particularly three or more, leads to a notable increase in the demand for both cars and motorcycles. Conversely, the demand for vehicles is relatively low among households with elderly members, and as the number of elderly individuals increases, the demand for cars significantly declines. However, in recent years, households with only one elderly member still show an increase in motorcycle demand compared to those without elderly members.
Regarding household employment status, the employment rate has only recently shown a significant positive impact on car ownership, while it has consistently positively influenced motorcycle ownership. In recent years, an increase in household population has significantly positively impacted car ownership, and although it also positively affects motorcycle ownership, the parameter value has gradually declined.
Real disposable income has a significant impact on vehicle ownership. The study finds that higher real disposable income correlates with an increase in the number of cars and motorcycles owned, reflecting the importance of economic conditions on the ownership of household transportation.
In terms of regional characteristics, there are significant differences in vehicle ownership across different regions. After 1999, the demand for cars in the Taipei-New Taipei-Keelung area gradually declined, while the demand in the Taoyuan-Hsinchu-Miaoli area surpassed that of the Taipei-New Taipei-Keelung area during the same period. Motorcycle demand in the Taipei-New Taipei-Keelung area has been rising annually, while it has been declining in other regions. This indicates that the level of regional economic development and transportation infrastructure significantly impacts household vehicle ownership.
The findings of this study are important for understanding the changes in transportation demand amid social transformations in Taiwan and provide valuable references for related research. |
