自一九九九年至二００三年五年期間，台灣歷經三個重大災難--九二一地震，九一一恐怖攻擊，及SARS疫情的蔓延。其對觀光產業影響甚鉅。在政府推出『挑戰二００八：國家發展重點計畫』致力推動「觀光客倍增計畫」的背景之下，為釐清災難對國際觀光旅館經營績效(hotel performance)所造成之衝擊，本研究探討之焦點著重在災難對觀光旅館住房表現之變化。透過大台北地區國際觀光旅館五年間的月營運資料，分析災難影響飯店營運的程度(magnitude)與期間(duration)，以及住房率與房價的關係。X12-ARIMA用來調整時間、季節對於觀光需求的影響。資料包絡分析用來區隔旅館之經營有效率或無效率。分析結果顯示，在九二一地震期間，台北地區國際觀光旅館業績平均下跌2.25個月，RevPAR平均累積下滑16.1%。相較於獨立經營的旅館，連鎖旅館有較佳的表現,，但不顯著。而以日本為主要客源的飯店，損失明顯比其他飯店嚴重。以往經營有效率的飯店，損失有比較輕微，但統計上不顯著。在九一一恐怖攻擊事件中，台北地區國際觀光旅館業績平均下跌2.18個月，RevPAR平均下滑 13.35 %。相較於獨立經營的旅館，連鎖旅館的損失較少，並不顯著。以日本為主要客源的飯店，業績損失雖然較大，但也不顯著。以往經營有效率的飯店，損失比較少，也不顯著。而在 SARS疫情爆發期間，台北地區國際觀光旅館住房業績巨幅下跌，影響有8.8個月之久，RevPAR平均累積下滑 288.8%。相較於獨立經營的旅館，連鎖旅館有較低的損失，但在統計上並不顯著。以日本為主要客源的飯店，業績損失非常高，顯著高於其他飯店。以往經營有效率的飯店，損失較少，但統計上不顯著。 During the year of 1999 to 2003, the tourism demand of Taiwan had encountered three devastating disasters: the September 21 earthquake in 1999, the 911 terrorist attacks in the USA in 2001, and the SARS outbreak in the second quarter of 2003. The X-12-ARIMA was applied to adjust the seasonal factors and further to examine the impact of disasters on the hotel performance in Taipei. The results show that the international tourist hotels suffered the greatest loss during the SARS outbreak, with an average loss of 288.8% in RevPAR for 8.8 months, followed by the 921 earthquake (16.1% in 2.25 months), and the 911 terrorist attacks (13.35% in 2.18 months). During the 921 earthquake, the chain hotels have a lower mean RevPAR decline than the independent hotels. The hotels targeting at Japanese market suffer a significantly higher average RevPAR loss than the others. The efficient hotels have a lower average RevPAR loss. During the 911 terrorist attacks, the chain hotels have a lower mean RevPAR decline than the independent ones. The hotels targeting at Japanese market have a higher RevPAR loss than the other ones. The efficient hotels experience less decline than the inefficient hotels. Among the three disasters, the SARS outbreak had the biggest influence toward hotel performance. The chain hotels have a relative lower RevPAR than the independent ones. The hotels targeting at Japanese market have a higher RevPAR loss than the others. Relatively, the efficient hotels have less loss than the inefficient hotels.
