| 摘要: | 當科技研發與知識創新成為經濟成長的核心動力時，各國政府極力尋求資源規劃的合理性與核心科技的優先發展順序，以確保國家競爭力。在現代科技具有高度複雜性與不確定性，以及面對劇烈的國際競爭壓力下，本身具有深刻的科技、經濟與社會背景的前瞻研究，已成為全球性的重要議題，因此，近年來許多國家透過前瞻計畫所得的結果，作為研發、創新投入與資源分配的重要基礎。台灣直至目前為止，尚未有一套完整的前瞻研究計畫，在前瞻發展上相對其它各國明顯落後。本研究以日本、韓國、德國、印度與中國現階段前瞻計畫執行成果為依據，運用STEEP分析法進行質性研究，比較出各國前瞻規劃之異同，並歸納出未來台灣在進行前瞻研究時，應關注的七類焦點方向與可能面對的議題，包括： 一、趨勢： 1.目前前瞻發展趨勢已由最初只關注科技發展，轉向於對社會、經濟、能源與環境生態方面的關注。 2.前膽研究的範疇必須關注於跨領域、跨學科的整合技術。 二、方法： 1.前瞻研究方法漸從傳統大型德爾菲調查，轉由依研究目做更有彈性的調整。 2.將符合未來可能重視的評價與觀點加入德爾菲問卷調查之中。 3.前瞻研究必須是可執行的前瞻願景，因此必須定出各階段步驟及所需達成目標的必備基本條件、資源配置效率與優先發展順序。 4.定出前膽研究計畫各階段行動績效評估，並對執行成果進行評鑑、回饋與修正。 三、團隊： 前瞻研究團隊人員應集結來自不同領域的各方專家與社會大眾的意見。 四、組織： 1.由於現階段台灣目前尚未有完整的前瞻研究計畫，因此無足夠具有前瞻研究經驗的專家可推動前瞻研究計畫，建議台灣可藉由引進國外具有經驗的學者專家，達成學習演進的綜效。 2.設立主要前瞻研究統合機構，以避免造成政策呈現多頭馬車的困境。 五、經費： 科技領域的前瞻研究，仍為最受重視的課題，政府應提高研發經費的投入，來增強國家競爭力。 六、政府： 1.前瞻活動通常是由政府發起，集合相關領域眾多權威專家來共同完成。 2.政府對於前瞻的重視程度與前瞻研究成果、決策制定、及暨研發經費投入程度呈正向關係。 七、國情： 前瞻活動必須配合國情設計出符合國情的前瞻研究計畫。 When R&D and innovation of knowledge became the core of economic growth, most of the governments energetically look for the reasonable resource planning and the priority of core technology development to make sure the national competitive advantage. Foresight study which with profound background of technology, economy and society has become an important issue for the whole world when countries face a high degree of complexity and uncertainty in modernistic science and technology, and face an intense pressure from the international competition. Therefore, in recent years many countries use foresight results as a foundation for research, development, innovation, and resource distribution. So far, in Taiwan, foresight program has not been completed, so that is compared poorly with other countries. Based on foresight results of Japan, Korea, Germany, India, and China, the similarities and difference among the foresight programs of every countries are studied and the results are induced by STEEP analysis into seven categories as focus fields and possible issues when setting up Taiwan foresight program in future. The seven categories are which as follows: A.Trends: a.Currently, the trend of foresight is not only focused on development of science and technology but also on the society, economy, energy and environment. b.Foresight study must focuses on the integrated technologies of cross-fields and cross-subjects. B.Methods: c.Foresight research methods have been changed from the traditional large-scale Delphi survey to the more flexible adjusted methods according to research purposes. d.The evaluation and perspective of the possible future are added to the Delphi survey. e.The foresight vision must be executable. Therefore, the stage, necessary basic conditions, efficient allocation of resources, and the priorities of development for reach the required goal must be set up. f.Setting up the action performance evaluation at every stages, and examine, feedback, and adjust the executive result. C.Team work: Foresight research team should be assembled from the experts in different areas and the public. D.Organization: g.Foresight program has not been executed completely yet in Taiwan. Therefore, there are not enough experienced experts to promote the foresight plan. The experienced foreign scholars and experts can be introduced to achieve the efficiency of learning evolution of the foresight of Taiwan. h.To establish the major foresight integrated machinery to avoid the inconsistency of policies. E.Budget: The foresight field of technology is still the most important issue. Government should increase the budget of research and development to ensure national’s competition. F.Government: i.Foresight activities are usually initiated by the government and are completed by many authoritative experts in relating fields. j.The degree of government pay attention on foresight activities has positive relationship with the foresight study results, decision-making of policies and the investment of R & D budget. G.Conditions of country: The foresight activities’ program must be drawn up by depending on the country’s conditions |
