為了尋找未來手持式裝置的可能模樣，應具備怎樣的使用或操作特性，人們是如何操作與使用該產品，本研究利用前瞻分析方法之一的情境規劃法來做探討。 經過情境規劃法的分析，找出關鍵決策因素為未來手持式裝置的「資料輸出入方式」與「資料輸出入方式的界面」，應滿足消費者需求的輕薄短小、易於攜帶、界面人性化等，並同時兼具可輸出閱讀的影像。分析出影響發展手持式裝置的外部驅動影響因子，並定位在衝擊與不確定矩陣中的位置。整理出影響手持式裝置的重要不確定軸面為：手控制輸入、聲音輸入、電子紙界面、投影界面，並依各不確定軸面的可能實現與不可能實現，發展出16種情境組合，並將其中4種情境給予詳細的描述，希冀提供各研究單位一個可以發想的技術空間。 In order to look for the appearance of future handheld device, the characteristics included in and the way to use or operate the handheld device are researched and explored. Scenario Planning which is one of the methods of Foresight Analysis is used to find out the results. After Scenario Planning analysis, the key decision factors of “way of data input / output” and “interface of data input / output” of future handheld device are light、thin、short、small、easy to carry、using in human nature and readable image. The external driving forces are found and located into the impact and uncertainty matrix. The uncertainty axes are：input through hand controlling、input through voice、interface of electronic paper and interface of projector. The 16 scenarios are developed according to each of the realizable and non-realizable uncertainty axes. 4 particular scenarios of those are described to provide the ways to develop the related technologies for research centers or organizations.
