本研究主要探討家族企業，是否會影響企業發生財務危機的可能性，並加入過度自信因素，探討家族企業與非家族企業是否由於過度自信傾向的不同而影響企業發生財務危機的可能性；本研究以2001年至2007年間台灣上市、上櫃公司為樣本，主要資料來源為台灣經濟新報資料庫，並利採用邏輯式迴歸(Logit regression)分析方法；在台灣的家族企業，實證結果發現相較於非家族企業，家族企業導致財務危機的可能性較低；然而若家族企業經理人若具有過度自信傾向，則會有過度投資或舉債過高的情形，而增加企業發生財務危機的可能性；意即家族企業相較於非家族企業導致財務危機發生的可能性增加，原因是由於若家族企業中之經理人具有過度自信傾向，可以預期就該經理人而言，相較於家族企業特性，其高程度的過度自信傾向將對其財務危機發生的可能性有更為強大的影響力。 本文進一步探討若經理人均具有過度自信傾向，家族企業與非家族企業之間導致企業發生財務危機可能性的差異，主要就是來自於家族企業中具過度自信傾向的家族經理人。 The purpose of this research is to investigate the relationship between family business and the possibility of business facing financial distress. Our research also tries to probe into the relationship between family businesses and the possibility of business facing financial distress is affected by optimism. Our research sample contains Taiwanese listed and OTC from 2001 to 2007 and the main resource of research data comes from Taiwan Economic Journal Database. Using the Logit regression model, the results indicate that family business can diminish the possibility of business facing financial distress. However, our research finds that if the managers in family business are overconfidence, the managers will overinvest or have a higher leverage to increase the possibility of business facing financial distress. Furthermore, our research investigate if managers from family members or non-family CEOs all are overconfidence, the difference of the possibility of business facing financial distress between family and non-family business come from the managerial overconfidence of family CEOs.
