| 摘要: | 為了尋找未來都會區輕型電動載具的可能模樣，人們是如何操作與使用，載具採用何種電池系統，以及具備哪些必需之功能。本研究整合願景、連結分析規劃法、情境規劃法與馬可夫鏈四種方法，清楚將因素的時間轉換區分為：不變的、變易的、消失的與不確定四類，並建構出「馬可夫轉換情境規劃法」作為情境分析與規劃的前瞻方法。 經過研究分析，未來輕型電動載具聚焦的關鍵決策因素為：「呈現型態」、「電池系統」、「操作方式」、「停車輔助系統」與「主動安全系統」。以馬可夫鏈之時間狀態轉移觀點，呈現輕型電動載具關鍵決策因子之未來轉變。整理出不確定狀態之關鍵決策因子為：自動駕駛、燃料電池、可變軸距、四輪90o轉向，並依不確定程度區分為可能實現與不可能實現的樂觀與悲觀兩類，發展出16種情境組合，並詳細的描述3種情境，提供未來都會生活輕型電動載具一個可以發想的技術空間，透過3組情境，可讓政府、產業與相關研究單位意識到鋰電池與主動安全系統之趨勢，可觸發這些單位投入基礎建設及相關研發，讓未來的都會生活與輕型移動載具可以及早實現。本研究更建立監視觸發點之觀念，協助相關單位判斷不確定狀態之因素是否在預期的可能路徑上，做為判斷是否該投入資金與研究之依據。 In order to foresight the configuration of future light electric vehicle, the characteristics, battery system, indeed needed technologies included in and the way to use or operate the light electric vehicle are researched and explored. The Vision, Linkage Analysis Planning, Markov Chain and Scenario Planning are integrated and used to distinguish clearly types of the timable transition of factors: changeless, changeable (trend), disappeared, and uncertain states, and the “Markov Transition Scenario Planning” method of Foresight Analysis is constructed. After analysis, the key decision factors of future light electric vehicle are “the appearance of styles”, “the battery system”, “the operating system”, “parking assistant system” and “active safety system”. Use the concepts of the timable states of transition of Markov Chain, and found the uncertain states of the key decision factors which are “autopilot system”, “fuel cell”, “flexible wheelbase”, and “four-wheel steer (parallel parking)”. The 16 scenarios are developed according to the uncertain states of the key decision factors of realizable optimistic condition and non-realizable pessimistic condition, and in which 3 particular scenarios are described to provide the ways to develop the related technologies, and let government, industries, and related research centers become aware of the trend of “lithium ion battery” and “active safety system”, and enforce these organizations to invest in the related infrastructures, research and development, so consequently the future city life and the light electric vehicle could be earlier realizable. Through the aspects of trigger points, whether the factors of uncertain states are on anticipate possible routes could be determined, as a basis to judge whether invest funding and research or not. |
