台灣電動車產業發展之情境規劃; Scenario Planning of the electric vehicle industry in Taiwan

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题名:	台灣電動車產業發展之情境規劃;Scenario Planning of the electric vehicle industry in Taiwan
作者:	沈義桐;Yi-Tung Shen
贡献者:	企業管理研究所
关键词:	電動車;情境規劃;馬可夫鏈;專家訪談;前瞻;Electric Vehicle;Scenario Planning;Markov Chain;Expert interview;Foresight
日期:	2010-06-17
上传时间:	2010-12-08 14:46:44 (UTC+8)
出版者:	國立中央大學
摘要:	為描繪出2020年電動車發展的樣貌，及瞭解到影響電動車發展過程中的驅力有哪些，本研究整理出情境規劃法步驟並以情境規劃法為基礎架構，融合馬可夫鏈與專家訪談，提出「馬可夫多階段轉軸式情境規劃法」做為瞭解電動車產業的前瞻方法，找出影響電動車產業發展的驅動力，瞭解電動車在發展過程中受到哪些驅動力影響，使能在關鍵的時間、空間狀態下，投入適時的資源，做為決策時的參考依據。依馬可夫鏈轉軸觀念，真正會影響前瞻時點的情境是前一次的結果，而在做長期前瞻時，卻常以前幾次的基期來發展情境。故以2010年之現況先描繪出2015年之時間、空間狀態，依訪談結果建構出2015年背景，再以2015年為背景前瞻2020年電動車產業。由多數專家確認出2020年電動車產業不確定與影響程度最大的關鍵因素，進行不確定軸分析與情境選擇，不確定軸面為：「大眾對電池的接受度」、「國際石油價格走勢」、「政府對電動車產業的信心與投入」。依2020年基礎背景發展出的情境為最佳發展情境、廠商主導情境、政府主導情境與最難發展情境，描繪出電動車產業可能之發展路徑。 In order to describe and realize what factors will affect the development of electric vehicles in 2020, this study uses the framework of scenario-based structure, Markov chain integration and expert interviews to estimate and forecast the electric vehicles industry. Government, society and related research associations are going to figure out what factors drive electric vehicles while it is developing. In this case, researchers could have criteria able to make a decision and come up with solutions at the right time. According to Shaft in accordance with Markov chain conception what will be the real point of the situation affect the forward-looking is the result of previous assumptions; researchers often use the result from previous occasions (base period) to develop scenarios for the long-term vision. Therefore, estimate and describe the time and space state in 2015, gain the structure from interviews and then construct the background of 2015, use the previous information of 2015 to predict electric vehicle industry in 2020. Most experts identify what the key factor affect electric vehicle industry remains uncertain. Then we name the uncertain situation: "The public acceptance of battery", "The trend of international oil price" and "The confidence and investment of government in electric car industry" base on the background in 2020 to develop the best developing situation, the leading vendor situation, the Government-led situation, and the most difficult development situation.Describe the developing path of electric vehicle industry.
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