為什麼在景氣最好的時期，有些公司賺錢，而有些公司卻還是虧錢呢。從經濟學 的方面來說，在經濟不景氣時，廠商投資行為的經濟成本較低，所以是投資的好時機。 所以那些在景氣高峰期績效較好的廠商在景氣谷底期與次一期景氣回升期的變數變動 是本研究想探討的問題。透過廠商在景氣谷底與景氣回升時的研究發展費用率、營業利 益、自由現金流量來探究景氣高峰期時，擁有較多盈餘績效的公司和盈餘績效落後的廠 商在上述三項財務指標有何不同的變化。本研究先選取了在景氣高峰期績效較佳與績效 落後的樣本，以敘述統計與 T 統計檢定，觀察出樣本變數變動特徵。再使用前兩期的三 項財務變數分別對景氣高峰期之每股盈餘做迴歸分析，探討前期變數對後期盈餘的影 響。 對公司內部決策者而言，在景氣谷底期有較好的營業利益，則在之後的景氣高峰期 也會有較好的每股盈餘々景氣谷底期對於公司的研發支出是很好的投資時期々在自由現 金流量部分，過度投資的行為可能也是影響績效高低的因素。對公司外部投資人而言， 在景氣谷底期營業利益愈高的公司是投資的好目標々選擇在景氣谷底期擁有”正”自由現 金量再配合完善的公司監督制度是本研究建議的選擇方向。 Why some companies make money, but some companies are still losing money in the best period in the economics? From the economics side, it’s good time to invest because investment behavior of the economic costs are lower during the downturn in the economics . This study investigates the problem which the changes of the variables in the bottom of economics which companies have better performance in peak of the economics has bottomed. By the research and development expense ratio, operating profit, free cash flow to explore companies have more profit and earnings performance of the companies behind the performance of the three financial indicators in the difference changes the peak of the economics . In the first, this study selected the better performance and performance behind in peak of economy the samples to descriptive statistics and statistical test T, observed changes in characteristics of the sample variables. Then this study use the two periods of the three financial variables on the peak of economic of the earnings per share to do regression analysis the impact of before variables on later earnings. For the company decision makers in the economy has better business interests in the bottom of economy and these will be better at the after peak of earnings per share. It’s a good time to invest on company’s R&D in the bottom of economy; over-investment behavior may also affect the performance level of factors in free cash flow. For outside investors of company , it’s a good investment objectives which has higher operating profit in the bottom of economy；To choice these companies which have positive free cash and combined with a sound system of corporate oversight recommendations of this study is the choice to direct.
