為了尋找2020年電動車底盤與充電基礎設施之發展趨勢，本研究結合修正式德菲法、外部驅動力分析、內部能力資源評估與情境發展等方法發展成馬可夫修正式德菲法情境分析，找出關鍵因素隨著時間轉換所產生的變化，以瞭解「電動車底盤與充電基礎設施」之發展趨勢。 本研究針對底盤系統、充電基礎設施進行前瞻分析，透過分析整理出不確定狀態之關鍵因素為：「轉向機柱式電動轉向」，煞車系統之「防鎖死煞車ABS」，基礎設施建置之「充電-JEVS G105」、「充電功率-380V」、「充電便利性-住家」、「充電費用-預付儲值式」、「充電環境-簡易辦公服務」，以馬可夫鏈不變狀態之關鍵因素描繪情境之背景，再納入變易狀態、不確定狀態之關鍵因素，劃分為基礎情境、假設情境Ⅰ、假設情境Ⅱ、未來情境、突破情境Ⅰ、突破情境Ⅱ與挑戰情境等七種情境組合。透過七組情境，可讓政府、產業與相關研究單位意識到電動車底盤與充電基礎設施之發展趨勢。除了可觸發相關研發，也刻畫出2020年電動車可用性工程技術與系統整合後之概念。 In order to find out the development trend of chassis and charging foundation equipment of electric vehicle in 2020, The Modified Delphi Method, External drivers analysis, Internal resource assessment and scenario are combined to development to construct the” Markov Modified Delphi Method Scenario Analysis”. The method is used to find out the transitions of key factors which are changed by time and to realize the development trend of electric vehicle’s chassis and charging foundation equipment. The research focus on chassis system and Changing foundation equipment.Through the analysis and figure out the uncertain states of the key factors which are”steering column electric power steering”,” Anti-lock Braking System”,”charging standard-JEVS G105”,”charging power-380V”,”charging convenience-House”,”charging fees-pay in advance and pre-paid”and”charging environment-simple work service”. The key factors of Markov changeless state are used to describe the background of scenario, and then key factors of Markov changeable state and uncertain state are added to divide into seven portfolios: basis scenario, assume scenario Ⅰ, assume scenario Ⅱ, future scenario, Breakthrough scenarioⅠ, Breakthrough scenario Ⅱ and Challenge scenario. Through seven scenarios let government, industry and research units realize development trend of electric vehicle’s chassis and charging foundation equipment.This research not only triggers these related units to put in resource and research, but also depicts electric vehicle’s usability engineering and concept of system integration in 2020.
