| 摘要: | 為描繪2020年電動車馬達系統與電池系統之發展趨勢，及瞭解影響技術發展過程中的外部驅動力以及內部的能力與資源有哪些，本研究以情境規劃法為基礎架構，加入修正式德菲法，並將因素的時間轉換清楚區分為：不變的、變易的、消失的、不確定與新生五類，發展出「馬可夫修正式德菲法情境分析」作為情境分析與規劃的前瞻方法。 本研究針對「馬達系統」、「電池系統」進行前瞻分析，以馬可夫鏈之時間狀態轉移觀點，分析出不確定狀態之關鍵因素為：馬達系統之「直流無刷馬達」、「表面磁鐵型永磁同步馬達」、「切換式磁阻輪內馬達」；電池系統之「鋰高分子電池」、「鋰鈷電池」、「鋰鈦氧負極電池」、「多晶矽太陽能電池」以及「砷化鎵太陽能電池」。以馬可夫鏈不變狀態作為背景，再納入變易狀態、不確定狀態之關鍵因素，劃分為基礎情境、假設情境I、假設情境II、未來情境、突破情境I、突破情境II、挑戰情境七種情境組合，透過七組情境的描述，可讓政府、產業與相關研究單位意識到電動車關鍵零組件之發展趨勢，除了可觸發馬達和電池相關研發，讓未來的想像可以及早實現，也刻畫出2020年電動車可用性工程技術與系統整合後之概念意像。 In order to describe the trend of motor and battery system development of electric vehicle and to figure out the factors that would affect the external drives and the internal resources, the thesis uses scenario analysis method to be the basic framework, adding modified Delphi method to clarify timable transition into five categories: changeless, changeable, disappeared, uncertain states and newborn. More precisely, the five factors is used to construct “Scenario Analysis of Markov Modified Delphi Method”. The thesis focuses on motor and battery system to do the Foresight analysis, using the transition concept of Markov Chain to clarify the key factors of uncertain states into (I) motor system: brushless DC (BLDC) motor, surface permanent magnet synchronous motor and Switched Reluctance In-Wheel Motor. (II) Battery system: lithium-ion polymer battery, LiCoO2 batter, Li4Ti5O12, Multi-Single Crystal Silicon Solar Cell and GaAs Solar Cell. Moreover, the changeless concept of Markov Chain is used to be background, adding the key factors of changeable and uncertain states to clarify seven kinds of scenario portfolio: basic scenario, scenario assumption I, scenario assumption II, future scenario, breakthrough scenario I, breakthrough scenario II and challenge scenario. It could make the government, industries and related departments realize the development trend of key components about electric vehicle by the scenario descriptions. It can increase their willingness to invest in the related researches to achieve future image, also shape the usable engineering technique and integrated system concepts of electric vehicles in 2020 for public. |
