馬可夫前瞻情境規劃方法論建構之研究; The Construction And Application on Methodology of Markov Chain for Foresight Scenario Planning

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題名:	馬可夫前瞻情境規劃方法論建構之研究;The Construction And Application on Methodology of Markov Chain for Foresight Scenario Planning
作者:	林萱佳;Shiuan-Jia Lin
貢獻者:	企業管理研究所
關鍵詞:	前瞻;願景;情境規劃法;馬可夫鏈;台灣服務業;Markov Chain;service industry.;Scenario Planning;Vision;Foresight
日期:	2011-09-05
上傳時間:	2012-01-05 15:08:38 (UTC+8)
摘要:	為了順應變化快速的環境，利用前瞻方法檢視國家或產業環境與趨勢的變動，因使用前瞻方法的組合不同導致分析結論與實際結果具有落差，考量數個常用於前瞻之規劃方法，如：前瞻、願景或情境規劃等，探討其定義、特性及使用之限制，融合各方法之優缺點，建構成一較為全面性之前瞻研究架構，命名為：馬可夫前瞻情境規劃法。以台灣服務業2015年未來發展為個案進行前瞻分析，透過本身已具備的技術能力與產業發展優勢，融合展現出獨特文化及民族特性為願景，將規劃期間區分為兩個時間階段，以馬可夫鏈概念討論關鍵因素狀態的轉變，經分析得知影響台灣服務業的未來發展之關鍵因素可區分為「政策」、「資訊科技支援」與「產業特性」共三大類，並以社會、經濟、科技、政治與環境等五大構面討論可能造成影響的外部驅動力，根據不同規劃期間分析所得資料與結果撰寫未來可能情境，除了可清楚勾勒出未來整體環境的改變外，亦可提供制定政策的參考，並設立監視的觸發點，觀察因素發展轉換狀態是否在預期發展路徑上，以利適時的投入資源提高達成願景標竿之機率。透過本研究提出的架構可修正整合前瞻方法，提供一個全新且較全面的方法以前瞻未來之可能關鍵影響因素及情境，且利用個案分析驗證規劃步驟與願景標竿串聯之，可獲得更為具體且完善的分析結論。 In order to get with the environment changing quickly, survey the changing of environment and trends by foresight. There are always a gap between forecast and reality due to the different combination of foresight methods. Consider several methods used for foresight, such as The Foresight, The Vision and The Scenario Planning, and combine them into a complete foresight research framework by the meaning, characteristic, and the limit of each method, named “The Construction and Application on Methodology of Markov Chain for Foresight Scenario Planning” Analysis the case of the development of the Service Industry in 2015, the vision will be taking the abilities and the advantages we own, combining the unique culture and characteristic. While planning we separate the planning period into two stages, observing the type of key factors changing during the time period, and the influence toward the Service industry that would be classified into three clusters ：”policy, ” ”the support of technology,” ”the industry characteristic,” and consider those factors from the extra environment by Social, Technical, Ecological, Economic and Political-legal to describe the scenario, which not only show the environment changing but also help making a policy. Observing the trigger points to check those factors of uncertain states whether on anticipated possible routes or not, meanwhile to decide when to invest funding and resource to help rising the probability to get the vision. Provide a new and flawless method to foresight those key factors and scenario in the future by the Markov Foresight Scenario Planning method. Show those planning steps which connecting to the vision by case study to get a more specific and better result.
顯示於類別:	[企業管理研究所] 博碩士論文

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