前瞻模型建構與未來研究方法論系統性配適之研究;A Systemic Fitness Study on the Construction of Foresight Model with Futures Research Methodology

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Title:	前瞻模型建構與未來研究方法論系統性配適之研究;A Systemic Fitness Study on the Construction of Foresight Model with Futures Research Methodology
Authors:	楊奇穎;Yang,Chi-Ying
Contributors:	企業管理研究所
Keywords:	願景;前瞻;馬可夫鏈;情境規劃;未來研究方法論;動態規劃;Vision;Foresight;Scenario planning;Markov chain;Dynamic programming;Futures research methodology
Date:	2012-07-19
Issue Date:	2012-09-11 19:02:47 (UTC+8)
Publisher:	國立中央大學
Abstract:	近年來各國為了因應快速進步的科技發展與強化競爭力，開始進行一系列國家科技前瞻計畫，透過結合跨學科專家學者之知識，將前瞻作為輔助政策制定的規劃依據。在此同時，學術界與組織、企業也逐漸開始將焦點從科技前瞻轉為策略前瞻，運用各種未來研究方法幫助策略思考、分析、規劃與執行。本研究結合策略管理理論、相關前瞻概念與未來研究方法論三者，以方法論的不同層次分別對應說明概念與理論的內涵、階段與流程的連結，以及方法與步驟的執行，並運用情境規劃、馬可夫鏈與動態規劃方法，以「界定組織環境」、「評估要素」、「分析趨勢」與「發展策略」共四階段三十一個流程建構前瞻模型。透過本前瞻模型，組織以願景為出發點指引想要的未來，延伸長時效馬可夫轉換的概念，探討時空變化下關鍵要素之轉換，再運用情境規劃法整合議題、事件、驅動力、要素、趨勢之間的相互關係，建構出多種可能未來情境，最後以動態規劃及倒續推演的方式，連結情境並找出組織發展的最適路徑，同時辨識投入資源以動態調整的時機。藉由整合、系統性的模型，組織能夠評估自身的能力與資源，確認偏好的情境的與願景標竿，清楚瞭解各種未來研究方法使用之步驟、時機與目的，發展策略以塑造、達到想要的未來狀態。Recently, countries implement National Foresight Programes and invest in research and development to achieve competitive advantage and enhance social welfare. Meanwhile, organizations integrate multi-discipline foresight knowledge to help decision making and switch the focus from technology foresight to strategic foresight.This study aims to combine theories and concepts from strategic management, foresight and futures research methodology three fields. Corresponding to the level of methodology, related theories/concepts, stages/process and methods/steps are introduced. By applying scenario planning, markov chain and dynamic programming, a four-stage, thirty-one-process foresight model is constructed.Taken together, this study establishs a comprehensive and consistent foresight model. Based on vision, organizations determine its long-term future benchmarks and understand the transformation of key factors with interaction between driving forces, events and issues through the extention of markov process. Next, organizations can capture key factors and therefore sense trends to build alternative scenarios. Last, organizations may use dynamic programming or backcasting methods to draw out the most appropriate develepomental path and recognize the timing of alignment. All in all, this model points out how and when to systemically take futures research methods to solve specific problems and formulating strategies to shape and achieve preferable future states.
Appears in Collections:	[Graduate Institute of Business Administration] Electronic Thesis & Dissertation

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