創新概念的商業化往往伴著隨高度風險，如果能事先洞察創新擴散的動態過程，將有助於企業降低風險與維持在市場上的競爭力。創新的擴散涵蓋技術創新、使用者接受考量以及政策環境等因素的交互影響。然而，過去關於擴散議題的研究往往侷限於以歷史資料外推預測的結果，對於影響擴散的因素缺乏全面性的探討。因此，亟需一個能整納多元因素並提供更精準預測的評估系統。 本研究以新興產業中的遠距健康照護服務為例，探討創新擴散預測。典型的遠距健康照護服務主要由健康資訊整合中心、使用者、醫療單位與資通訊環境所組成。隨著世界人口急遽老化，各種使用資通訊技術的健康照護創新服務因應而生，遠距健康照護儼然已成為眾多新興產業中最具代表的產業之一。然而，遠距健康照護在台灣尚屬起步階段，未來的發展更是充滿著許多不確定性。本研究提出以系統動態觀點歸納影響遠距健康照護服務擴散的因子，以整合建構健康照護服務的動態擴散模型，並進一步以敏感度分析找出促進與抑制擴散的關鍵因素。 研究結果發現，遠距健康照護所採用的技術已進入成熟階段，產業的發展重點應更著重在服務的創新與整合；政策推動、市場需求是最主要的促進擴散因子；醫療法規則是最關鍵的抑制擴散因子。最後，本研究提出未來十五年的遠距健康照護服務擴散的五種情境預測與建議，希望提供未來創新服務規劃與策略佈局時參考。 The commercialization of the concept of innovation is often accompanied by a high degree of risk. Getting an insight into the dynamic process of innovation diffusion can be conducive to reducing risk and maintaining a competitive edge in the market. The diffusion of innovation covers technical innovation and the mutual interaction between the acceptance of users and the factors of political environments. However, previous studies on diffusion have been mostly limited by the propositions acquired from historical data and have lacked a comprehensive exploration of the influential factors affecting diffusion. A more accurate evaluation system that considers the multi-factor process is highly desired. This research presents the diffusion of innovation for the emerging industries such as telehealth. A typical telehealth service is composed of an integrated center for health information, users, medical units and ICT (Information and Communication Technology) environments. With the rapid aging of the world's population, telehealth has become one of the most important applications in the emerging industries. However, telehealth is still in the early stages and investment from government is still small scale. There are many uncertainties for the future development of this industry in Taiwan. This study concluded the factors affecting the diffusion in order to integrate and construct a system dynamics model for emerging industries and, using the analysis of sensitivity, further explore the key factors that either promote or inhibit diffusion. The results show that the technology for telehealth is already at a mature stage and the emphasis on development in this industry should be placed upon the innovation and integration of services the policy promotion and market demands are the main factors in enhancing diffusion. Medical regulations are the most critical factors in inhibiting diffusion. In addition, this study also proposes five kinds of scenario forecasts for telehealth service diffusion in the next 15 years, as well as suggestions that can provide guidance for future technology planning and strategic deployment.
