投資人情緒對分析師盈餘預測偏誤之影響;The Impact of Investor Sentiment on Analysts’ Earnings Forecast Errors

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Title:	投資人情緒對分析師盈餘預測偏誤之影響;The Impact of Investor Sentiment on Analysts’ Earnings Forecast Errors
Authors:	曹毓珊;TSAO,YU-SHAN
Contributors:	企業管理學系
Keywords:	不確定性公司;消費者信心指數;投資人情緒;分析師預測偏誤;uncertain firms;investor sentiment;analysts’ forecast errors;consumer confidence index
Date:	2014-06-20
Issue Date:	2014-08-11 18:19:10 (UTC+8)
Publisher:	國立中央大學
Abstract:	本研究以中央大學經濟研究發展中心每月調查的消費者信心指數作為投資人情緒之替代變數，探討投資人情緒是否會影響分析師對公司之盈餘預測；同時比較根據Baker and Wurgler (2006) 對「不確定性公司」或「難以衡量其價值的公司」之特性做歸類，探討公司規模、年齡、報酬穩定性、獲利性、有無發放現金股利等五種不同公司性質是否會因為投資人情緒進而影響分析師預測。實證結果發現，首先，分析師預測普遍過於樂觀，當投資人情緒越高昂反而會使分析師預測更為保守。其次，分析師對規模小、年輕、獲利低、無發放現金股利之公司有較樂觀之預測，對於盈餘穩定性之公司則並無顯著影響。而在交互影響方面，獲利性低與無發放現金股利之公司，分析師盈餘預測較易受投資人情緒之影響。整體而言，本研究結果顯示，分析師雖為專業且理性的分析人員，但預測行為仍會受到投資人情緒之影響。 ;We correlate analysts’ forecast errors with temporal variation in investor sentiment. By using the monthly survey of consumer confidence index conducted by the Research Center for Taiwan Development Economic as a proxy for investor sentiment . Follow the study of Baker and Wurgler (2006),we classify “uncertain” or “difﬁcult-to-value” ﬁrms to five characteristics.The empirical results of this study show the following：(1) Analyst’s earnings forecast is significantly optimistic. (2) When sentiment is high , analysts’ forecasts earnings growth are relatively less optimistic for all companies.(3)When sentiment is high, analysts’ forecasts earnings growth are relatively less optimistic for “unprofitable” or “no-dividends” ﬁrms. In sum, our findings indicate that are regarded as relatively sophisticate and rational investors investors in the capital markets.
Appears in Collections:	[Graduate Institute of Business Administration] Electronic Thesis & Dissertation

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