以上發現顯示，由於職災特性會隨產業結構變遷與生產作業方式變革而產生變化，因此職災預防與勞動檢查也必須隨著調整重點；另外以往研究多半認定安全績效係內生變數，研究顯示安全績效會受外生景氣循環影響，因此相關研究與比較必須注意與釐清脈絡因素諸如景氣循環與產業結構變化的影響。 ;The purpose of this study is to explore the long-term changes of occupational injury patterns and how injury incidence is associated with business cycle from macro perspective. In the fist stage, correspondence analysis was applied to chart longitudinal changes in occupational injury patterns (including severity, accident type, and source of injury) based on 92,577 cases reported by manufacturing firms in Taiwan between 1996 and 2012. Cluster analysis revealed three phases for injury severity and two for accident type and source of injury. The Kruskal–Wallis test revealed whether and which injury severity, accident type and source of injury had significant difference among different phases. In the second stage, empirical evidences showed that economic fluctuation influence injury incidence positively and 1% change in business cycle indicator resulted in 02-0.3% change in injury incidence across various industries including mining and quarrying, manufacturing, construction, wholesale and retail trade, and accommodation and food service activities in Taiwan. In addition, among the explanatory factors tested, only working hour and overtime were found to be significant, whereas indicators of labor composition and relation were not. Economic fluctuation accompanies with varying in workload and pace contributes to the increasing in injury incidence via fatigue and probability to miss operation. Injury prevention and precautionary measures must be implemented in response to the influence of contextual factors, such as the change of industrial characteristics and business cycle.
