摘要 「晉升」往往是企業內人力資源領域中被關注與討論最多的前幾項議題之一，因為晉升具有人才篩選以及人才激勵的功能，對於組織和個人而言，都極具重要性以及其意義，由其基層主管晉升人選的決定，更是影響組織目標是否達成的關鍵因素之一，故本研究主要期望建立影響員工晉升基層主管主要因素的預測模型，當有基層主管職位出缺時，可以提供做為參考之重要準則。 本研究透過羅吉斯迴歸，針對個案公司195名年資至少為七年(含)以上的資深工程師與管理師，探討「工作績效表現」、「職能表現」以及「個人因素變數」是否為影響個案公司晉升基層主管主要因素。實證結果發現，「工作績效表現」與晉升基層主管間呈現顯著正向相關，表示工作績效表現越好的工程/管理師，被提拔晉升為基層主管機會高，而「職能表現」中「管理職能表現」與晉升基層主管間呈現顯著正相關，表示管理職能表現表現越好的工程/管理師，被提拔晉升為基層主管機會高，個人因素變數中「年齡」和「教育程度」的影響呈現顯著負相關，而「累積職等年資」和「英語能力」則為顯著正相關。 關鍵字：晉升、工作績效、職能、核心職能、管理職能;Abstract “Promotion" is one of the main concerns and there are lots of discussions in human resource field within the enterprise. For organizations and individuals, “Promotion" plays an important role and has its significance in talent sorting and talent incentives. Furthermore, the decision of promotion candidates is one of the critical factors that affect whether the organizations could achieve goals or not. The research results are mainly intended to establish a forecasting model that can provide important guidelines to select supervisors. This research aims to explore the key factors in promotion for supervisor and adopts logistic regression to analyze the relationships among “supervisor promotion”, “job performance results”, “competence results” and “personal factors”. The research samples are 195 engineers and administrators with at least seven years internal seniorities in the case company. The results show that supervisor promotion has a positive correlation with job performance results and managerial competence results which means the better job performance and managerial competence they have, the more probability they will be promoted to supervisors. In addition, supervisor promotion holds a negative correlation with “age” and “education background” and a positive correlation with “grade seniorities” and “English ability”. Keywords: Promotion, Job performance, Competence, Core competence, Managerial competence.
