| 摘要: | 線上點對點借貸(Online peer-to-peer lending,P2P)是近年興起的電子商務形態，在中國已發展為巨大的金融產業。不同於通常的個案研究，本文以中國為例，評估P2P金融行業的商業表現，並且首次從效率的視角審視P2P借貸活動，以此得知在中國低覆蓋率的傳統金融活動之外，高槓桿背景下，可能影響借貸活動的關鍵要素，以及行業的發展狀況。本研究使用一個改良過的共同邊界資料包絡分析法(meta-frontier data envelopment analysis)對P2P平台的經營效率進行評估，並通過方法的改進解決零值、負值、不可控變量等方法上的干擾因素。基於行業的特徵，本研究預設一個成長效率/運營效率的二維度範式(paradigm)，進行兩組平行分析，並在對比中探討各種因素對平台績效的影響。研究結果發現了P2P平台的發展與運營效率之間的背離，由此推知現實中極高增長率可能帶來顯著的金融風險。同時發現，風險投資、公營資本參與、股權多元化幫助成長效率提升，而上市、金融集團參與可以提高運營效率；所在地的相對經濟水平因素，對效率沒有顯著影響。不同業態間的效率也有明顯的差異，其原因部分根植於社會和金融環境，而非行業本身的特點所致。;Online peer-to-peer lending (P2P), a form of e-commerce that has emerged in recent years, has developed into a huge financial industry in China. Different from the usual case study, this article takes China as an example to assess the business performance of the P2P financial industry, and for the first time examines P2P lending activities from an efficiency perspective, so that low coverage of traditional financial activities in China, under the background of highly leveraged, may affect the key elements of lending activities, and the development of the industry. In this study, an improved meta-frontier data envelopment analysis was used to evaluate the operating efficiency of P2P platforms, and the method was improved to solve the interference factors of zero value, negative value, uncontrollable variables and other methods. Based on the characteristics of the industry, this study presupposes a two-dimensional paradigm of growth efficiency/operation efficiency, conducts two parallel analyses, and discusses the impact of various factors on platform performance in comparison. The research results have found the divergence between the development of P2P platforms and the operation efficiency; thus, it can be inferred that the extremely high growth rate may bring significant financial risks in reality. Meanwhile, venture capital investment, public capital participation and equity diversification help to improve growth efficiency, while listing and financial group participation can improve operation efficiency. The relative economic level of location has no significant effect on efficiency. There are also significant differences in the efficiency of different types of business, which are partly rooted in the social and financial environment rather than the characteristics of the industry itself. This means that the development of the industry mainly relies on the "conceptual" attraction of Internet color, rather than the core of risk control. Eliminating the acknowledged but unregulated state, bringing it into the formal financial sector and reinforcing its financial color, and weakening the bubble of the Internet and venture capital is a priority. |
