探討分析師資本支出預測之資訊意涵

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Title:	探討分析師資本支出預測之資訊意涵
Authors:	魏怡靜;Wei, I-Ching
Contributors:	企業管理學系
Keywords:	分析師;資本支出預測;盈餘預測
Date:	2019-07-29
Issue Date:	2019-09-03 14:47:40 (UTC+8)
Publisher:	國立中央大學
Abstract:	本研究主要探討分析師資本支出預測之資訊意涵，因企業的資本支出具有當期投入，後期回收之特性，故當預測期長相同時，應較盈餘預測更具領先性，故先由分析師自身觀點出發，討論分析師資本支出預測與其盈餘預測及推薦報告之關聯性，驗證資本支出預測是否具領先性特質，再探討對市場所產生之影響，針對此指標對企業的長短窗期累積報酬之影響來探討，釐清分析師資本支出預測的價值攸關性，是否提供市場所需之額外資訊。實證結果顯示，分析師資本支出預測與其盈餘預測與推薦報告有顯著負相關性，且兩期以上的長期盈餘預測更加明顯，可得知分析師做推薦決策時確有納入資本支出做為考量；另對市場而言，結果顯示支出預測與企業長短窗期報酬皆有顯著關係，短窗期檢測顯示投資人對分析師資本支出預測有顯著反應，而長窗期檢測顯示資本支出預測具有價值攸關，可得知分析師資本支出預測具有資訊意涵，且結果隱含分析師資本支出預測指標之過度投資的議題討論。;The purpose of this study is to examine the effect of analyst capital expenditure forecasts while the impact of the investment decisions in a company will extend into the future and affect its corporate value. In the study, we investigate the relation of capital expenditure forecasts with recommendation reports, earnings estimates, and the returns of the firm. Moreover, we show the importance of analyst capital expenditure estimations, which provide concealing information to the market. The results demonstrate that analyst capital expenditure forecasts have mostly adverse influences on earnings estimates, especially over two sample periods. However, recommendation reports are significantly negatively related. For the firms and market, we found that analyst capital expenditure forecasts affect both long-term and short-term returns. Short-term return reflects the degree of information received from the market, and the longterm shows the accuracy of the analyst forecast, although over investment may occur. According to the research, the message passing of analyst capital expenditure forecast is essential and value relevant to the capital market.
Appears in Collections:	[Graduate Institute of Business Administration] Electronic Thesis & Dissertation

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