分析師現金流量預測為企業過度投資之衡量指標

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Title:	分析師現金流量預測為企業過度投資之衡量指標
Authors:	程薇安;Cheng, Wei-An
Contributors:	企業管理學系
Keywords:	分析師;現金流量預測;過度投資
Date:	2021-05-05
Issue Date:	2021-12-07 11:31:42 (UTC+8)
Publisher:	國立中央大學
Abstract:	本研究探討分析師現金流量預測次數與無形資產及研發支出之關係，並進一步以三天短窗期的累積異常報酬和以一年長窗期的累積異常報酬分析藉由分析師現金流量預測衡量企業的過度投資。McNichols & Stephen（2008）從企業財報資訊來判定該公司是否有過度投資之情形，會有其侷限性，一來歷史現金流量無法反應企業的未來，二來Tobin′s Q雖具未來性，但僅是市場一般投資人所形成的看法，因此，本研究由分析師的專業角度出發，試圖以其現金流量預測來建構過度投資之指標，並用盈餘預測準確度區分分析師能力高低，探討分析師能力對本研究之影響，同時與過去研究進行比較，並檢測模型所計算出最適投資差距是否能夠判斷企業為過度投資。研究期長為2010至2018年的美國企業資料，實證結果顯示能力較佳的分析師對無形資產較多的公司提供較佳長天期現金流量預測，另一方面分析師現金流量預測在長窗期時對公司之過度投資具有邊際解釋力。;This study examines the relationship between analysts’ cash flow forecasts and intangible assets and R&D expenditures. Furthermore, we will measure companies’ overinvestment from the analyst’s perspective. McNichols, Maureen & Stephen (2008) determine whether the company has over-invested from financial or market information which has its limitations. For example, expenditure will be restricted by accounting rules and.it can’t truly reflect the value of the companies. On the other hand, if company as leader is measured by the average investment in the same industry, the results may be biased. Therefore, in this study, we will try to construct another indicators of overinvestment from the perspective of analysts’ cash flow and distinguish analysts’ ability from high to low by accuracy of earnings forecasts. The study period is from 2010 to 2018. The results provide better analysts with long-term cash flow forecasts for companies with more intangible assets. Another shows that analysts’ cash flow forecasts can find out overinvestment company during the long window period.
Appears in Collections:	[Graduate Institute of Business Administration] Electronic Thesis & Dissertation

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