台灣為一小型開放經濟體 (small open economy)，由於自然資源有限且四面環海，台灣的經濟發展一直相當依賴國際貿易，如何持續提升台灣對外貿易流量是近年來逐漸受重視的議題。本研究以引力模型 (gravity model) 探討2004年至2008年間台灣與貿易國雙邊國家之間的貿易流量關係，並實證雙邊國家之製造業產值、人均GDP、海運運輸連結性指數、匯率與距離分別對台灣總貿易流量、出口流量與進口流量的影響程度，同時探討實證期間台灣與主要貿易國家中國大陸、美國、日本、香港、南韓、新加坡之間的貿易流量關係。透過追蹤資料 (panel data) 分析，實證結果顯示台灣與貿易國之人均GDP、海運運輸連結性指數對台灣總貿易流量有顯著正相關；出口國之製造業產值、海運運輸連結性指數對台灣出口流量有顯著正相關；進口國之人均GDP與海運運輸連結性對台灣進口流量有顯著正相關；而匯率對總貿易流量及出口流量為顯著負相關，但對進口流量為顯著正相關；距離對總貿易流量、出口流量與進口流量均為顯著負相關。基於研究結果，對美國、中國大陸、新加坡、香港、韓國與日本等六個主要貿易國家與台灣之間的貿易流量關係進行討論與建議。 Taiwan has a small open economy. As Taiwan has limited resources and is surrounded by the sea, its economic development is dependent on international trade. Promoting Taiwan’s international trade becomes an increasingly important issue in recent years. This research uses the gravity model to study the bilateral trade flow relationships between Taiwan and its trading partners from 2004 to 2008. Specifically, it investigates the impact of the trading partners’ characteristics on Taiwan’s import and export volume. These characteristics includes: volume of manufacturing output, Gross Domestic Product per capita (GDP per capita), liner shipping connectivity index (LSCI), exchange rate and geographic distance from Taiwan. The research also discusses the flow of trade between Taiwan and its major partners, China, United States, Japan, Hong Kong, South Korea and Singapore. Panel data analysis shows that trading partners’ GDP per capita and LSCI have significant positive influence on Taiwan’s trade flow. Export countries’ manufacturing output and LSCI have significant positive impact on Taiwan’s export flow. Import countries’ GDP per capita and LSCI have significant positive impact on Taiwan’s import flow. Exchange rate has significant negative impact on Taiwan’s trade and export flow, but positive impact on Taiwan’s import flow. Distance has significant negative impact on Taiwan’s trade, export and import flows. Base on the results, the research suggests ways to improve trade between Taiwan and its major trading partners.
