本研究以2008-2015年中國分析師盈餘預測，新財富分析師上榜資料為樣本，研究影響分析師成為明星分析師的主要因素以及明星分析師之間存在的能力差異。以分析師過去多期盈餘預測取代過去單期預測成為分析師的能力變數，並用分析師媒體曝光度作為分析師聲譽變數，實證結果發現，分析師長期預測能力（盈餘預測準確度）與成為明星分析師為正向關係；明星分析師長期預測能力與其第一次上榜及再次上榜機率為正向關係，明星分析師長期預測能力與排名為正向關係。本研究還從首次上榜和再次上榜的分析師分群過程中，證明只研究分析師過去一期的盈餘預測是不能夠完全說明分析師預測能力的，而應該將分析師長期的表現納入考量範圍。分析師欲上榜新財富，要保持長期高準確度的預測水準，且成為明星分析師後，也要注意提高自己的曝光度，使投資者更多關注自己的研究，方可成為更頂尖的明星分析師。研究結論將有助於廣大投資者正確認識中國明星分析師預測能力，機構投資者也能更理性地選拔優秀分析師。;This research took the earnings forecast data of Chinese analysts and the data of analysts listed on New Fortune from 2008-2015 as research samples and examined the factors that affect analysts becoming a star one and the ability differences among star analysts. This research took the past long-term earnings forecast of analysts replacing their short-term forecast as the competency variable of analysts. Empirical results have found that the long-term forecast ability of analysts is a key factor in influencing analysts to be a star one; among star analysts, there is no significant difference between the high-level star analysts and the low-level star analysts, who were divided as per the number of times of on-the-list and the position on the list, while the high-level star analysts have a much better reputation than the low-level ones. In addition, this research also grouped the analysts of first being on the list and those being on the list once again, and verified that it is not enough to fully prove the forecast ability of analysts just by their earnings forecasts of a period in the past, but should take their long-term performance into consideration. Analysts who want to be on the list of the New Fortune should maintain a long-term high-accuracy forecast level, and furthermore pay attention to uplifting their exposure frequency after being a star analyst so as to attract more investors to care about their research results, hence becoming a higher-level star one. The research conclusions of this paper are conducive for common investors to knowing the forecast ability of Chinese star analysts and for institutional investors to selecting outstanding analysts more rationally.
